As the world economy faces mounting uncertainty and rising trade tensions, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, says this could be a defining moment for Africa—not to panic, but to pivot and chart a stronger, more independent path.
Speaking at the official presentation of the WTO’s 2025 global trade forecast, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala painted a sobering picture of slowing trade growth and deepening divisions between global powers. Yet, her tone was not entirely bleak. Instead, she delivered a rallying message to Africa: the continent must take control of its future by boosting self-reliance, deepening intra-African trade, and becoming a more active player in global commerce.
According to the WTO’s projections, global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025. While that figure may seem positive on the surface, it is nearly one percentage point lower than what was initially forecasted. The drop is largely due to recent changes in global trade policies, including the introduction of new tariffs and a growing sense of economic rivalry, especially between the United States and China.
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala warned that if certain downside risks materialize—such as a full reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs and further spread of geopolitical uncertainty—global trade could actually shrink by as much as 1.5% next year. A major factor in this concern is the growing economic decoupling between the US and China. Without recent trade policy shifts, US-China merchandise trade would have grown by 51%. Instead, the WTO now projects a significant drop. She likened this to the two largest economies pulling away from each other—an act that could have ripple effects far beyond their borders.
For Africa, the overall economic outlook remains relatively stable under current global trade policies. This is largely because trade between Africa and the United States is still limited. Only 6.5% of Africa’s exports go to the US, while just 4.4% of its imports come from there. However, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala cautioned that this regional stability hides some very real risks at the country level. For example, Lesotho, a small landlocked country in Southern Africa, exports $240 million worth of textiles to the US—accounting for 10% of its GDP. If reciprocal tariffs are reinstated, these exports could become too expensive, threatening a vital sector of Lesotho’s economy.
Cote d’Ivoire also stands to lose. The West African country exports about $800 million worth of cocoa to the US, a crop not grown in the US and vital to global chocolate production. If US tariffs rise, Ivorian cocoa could become less competitive, possibly encouraging smuggling to neighboring Ghana, where tariffs may be more favorable.
Given the vulnerability of Least Developed Countries (LDCs)—especially those in Africa—Dr. Okonjo-Iweala called for a more compassionate global response. She proposed that LDCs be exempted from new tariffs as a way to support their economic development and integration into the global economy. “Instead of raising barriers, this is a time to offer LDCs a reprieve,” she said. “Exempting them from tariff increases would boost their exports, support growth, and open new markets.” Of the 44 countries globally classified as LDCs, 32 are in Africa.
More than just a critique of global policy, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala used her platform to issue a challenge to African leaders and businesses. She stressed the need for greater investment in the continent, both from within and abroad, and called for a deeper focus on intra-African trade. Currently, trade within Africa accounts for just 16% of total exports. Yet, the continent imports billions worth of products that could be produced or sourced internally. “Africa imports $7 billion worth of textiles. There is no reason Lesotho’s $240 million in textiles can’t be absorbed within the continent,” she said. “Africa needs to think more about trading with itself.”
ALSO TRENDING:
“Only 200 South-East Youths Signed up as Nigeria Army Recruits Thousands” – Official
Ohanaeze hails Okonjo-Iweala’s WTO re-election
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the pandemic and current trade tensions have highlighted a key lesson: the dangers of over-dependence. Many countries learned the hard way during COVID-19 that relying too heavily on a single supplier or export market can leave economies exposed. “We need to diversify not just where we buy from, but where we sell to,” she said, calling for “re-globalization”—an approach to make global trade more inclusive, more balanced, and less concentrated in a few powerful regions.
Finally, she reflected on the role of the WTO itself, saying the organization must evolve to address modern challenges. “Our rules were never meant to be set in stone. They must be updated and re-energized,” she said. She noted that “The current crisis presents an opportunity to make global trade fairer and more resilient for all nations.“
